🎣 Produce Season

After a sluggish February, the freight market is eyeing produce season to inject some much-needed momentum.

Historically, March through July marks the prime time for fresh produce shipping, with seasonal demand pushing rates higher, especially for reefer capacity.

But this year, things are looking likely to be softer than normal. Let's get into it.

The Carrier Assure Report Card

February Freight Market Recap: A Slow Build-Up

Industry data shows that February remained a lukewarm market, failing to ignite the kind of momentum many were hoping for.

• Rates Simmer Down: According to OTR Solutions, rates cooled from their January highs, a predictable seasonal shift following the storm-driven volatility of early Q1.

• No ‘Hot’ Markets in February:Greenscreens.ai data reveals that no truckload markets were hot enough to make their usual “high-demand” list last month, signaling an industry still waiting for its next big push.

• Tariff Impact Lingering: The front-loading of freight ahead of Trump’s new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China may have contributed to the temporary slowdown.

March Signals Produce Season’s Kickoff

Now, attention turns to produce season, which is expected to boost reefer demand and impact rates in major agricultural regions.

Whether you’re a freight broker strategizing lanes or a shipper securing capacity, knowing where the action is will help you stay ahead.

Kary Jablonski of Trucker Tools shared a helpful map showing where and when things will heat up.

Key Harvesting Regions to Watch:

• Florida: In addition to oranges (Apr-Jul) and strawberries (Dec-Mar), Florida’s bell pepper supply is strong, with promotable volumes available, according to Del Monte’s report.

• Texas: Peaches and grapefruit remain key commodities, but avocado market fluctuations from Mexico could impact reefer demand if growers limit supply to prevent price drops.

• California: Strawberries are peaking in April, but lettuce and leafy greens remain abundant, with good quality across the board.

• Arizona:Lettuce supply remains high, but seasonality will start to shift harvesting to California in the coming months.

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Additional insights from Del Bene's Produce Market Report adds a few more details on specific commodities:

• China’s tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods could create domestic supply gluts, particularly for fruit and citrus—which could lead to short-term freight disruptions.

• Avocados and berries are key U.S. imports from Mexico. With Mexico imposing retaliatory tariffs of its own, cross-border trade could experience pricing pressure.

• Strawberries, which are seeing strong supply from Baja, Oxnard, and Florida, may face shifting demand dynamics if Chinese buyers pull back on U.S. fruit imports.

So, it's clear that the macroeconomic environment deserves attention. We'll take a closer look in the next section.

Where Retaliatory Tariffs Could Hit Produce Shipping

While produce season traditionally tightens reefer capacity, China’s newly imposed tariffs on U.S. agriculture could add another layer of disruption. 

Beijing’s response to Trump’s trade moves includes new tariffs on key American exports, including soybeans, wheat, meat, and fruit.

• Exports May Slow Down: With increased tariffs, some U.S. agricultural products may face weaker demand from China, potentially leading to excess supply in domestic markets. This could create short-term shifts in freight flows as producers look for alternative buyers.

• Domestic Distribution Shifts: If exports decline, more produce may stay within U.S. borders, leading to different distribution patterns. Freight demand could spike on domestic lanes as growers redirect shipments to retailers and food service suppliers instead of international markets.

• Cross-Border Volatility: Tariff-related uncertainty with Mexico and Canada may also complicate trade, especially for perishable goods that rely on smooth cross-border logistics.

Lanes That’ll Get Busy

With produce surging, expect tightening capacity and rate hikes on lanes tied to harvesting regions:

• Florida → Northeast: Citrus and berries bound for Pennsylvania, New York, and New Jersey.

• Texas → Midwest: Peaches and grapefruit headed for hubs like Chicago and Kansas City.

• California & Arizona → Nationwide: Lettuce and strawberries supplying retailers coast to coast.

How Brokers Can Stay Competitive

• Secure Capacity Early: Reefer demand spikes as produce moves—if you’re not planning ahead, you’re already behind.

• Diversify Your Carrier Network: Brokers who lean too heavily on a small carrier base may struggle as markets tighten.

• Watch Regional Weather: Droughts, freezes, or excessive rain can shift harvesting windows and disrupt expected freight flows.

• Monitor Export Volume Changes: If exports to China slow, domestic freight lanes could see higher-than-expected produce volume.

• Stay Flexible on Lanes: Carriers may shift capacity away from international-heavy markets like the Pacific Northwest and California if Chinese demand drops.

• Watch for Market Shifts: If tariffs on U.S. farm goods reduce shipments abroad, brokers could see lower outbound rates but tighter regional demand for domestic reefer lanes.

Looking Ahead: Will Produce Season Jumpstart the Market?

If history is any indicator, produce season should drive freight activity upward, especially in the reefer sector.

However, macroeconomic pressures—ranging from interest rates to ongoing tariff battles—will continue to shape the broader freight environment.

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