🎣 8.4% Freight Drop, Rising Exits

October 13, 2025

Good Monday morning. U.S. imports fell 8.4% in September, and small carriers keep dropping out. Learn what it means for capacity in today's feature.

Plus:

  • Three USDOT, One Apartment

  • Cargo Theft Bleeds $6.6B a Year

  • Tariffs Hit Lumber, Furniture Imports

Today's Newsletter is Brought to You By Rapido.

🍳 What's Cookin' In Freight

🚨 Danielle Chaffin Flags Arizona “New Wave” Freight Setup. Industry researcher Danielle Chaffin shared a post on X cautioning carriers to “be cautious of the freight broker ‘New Wave Global Logistics.’” According to Chaffin’s review of FMCSA data, an Arizona resident, Skyler Pearson, registered three new USDOT authorities on September 8: two trucking companies and a brokerage, all linked to the same residential address. The entities include New Wave Global Logistics, New Wave Global Trucking LLC, and New Wave International Trucking LLC, each listing one truck. Chaffin also noted that court records from 2022 show Pearson faced criminal charges in Las Vegas related to an unrelated medical spa business.

📦 ATRI: Cargo Theft Costs $6.6 Billion a Year, Many Losses Never Reported. A new ATRI report finds U.S. cargo theft costs exceed $6.6 billion a year, or about $18 million daily, with 74% of stolen goods never recovered. The study revealed that over 40% of motor carriers don’t report thefts due to high deductibles and fear of premium hikes. “Unfortunately, we’ve reached a point where cargo theft has become a standard cost of doing business. Something must be done to stop these costly crimes,” said Ben Banks, president of TCW Inc. ATRI recommends stronger state laws, better theft reporting, and creating a national database to coordinate law enforcement and industry response.

📊 Tariffs Hit Lumber, Furniture Imports. Michigan State professor Jason Miller highlighted new Section 232 import duties on timber, lumber, and furniture products, noting lumber tops the list with nearly $4 billion in 2024 imports affected. Canada and Vietnam face the biggest impact, tied to lumber and upholstered furniture tariffs. Miller says these duties make it unlikely production will shift back to the U.S., as financing and competitiveness risks remain too high. The result: reduced product variety, higher consumer costs, and weaker downstream freight demand in sectors moving lumber, furniture, and cabinetry.

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Imports Drop, Carriers Exit. Freight Market Shows Signs of Tightening

Image Source: Descartes

New data from Descartes Systems Group shows U.S. container imports fell 8.4% year-over-year in September to 2.3 million TEUs, the steepest drop of 2025.

Imports from China fell even harder, down 12.3% MoM and 22.9% YoY, as trade tensions, a prolonged federal shutdown, and upcoming tariff deadlines rattled importers.

The 90-day tariff truce between the U.S. and China expires on November 10, adding more uncertainty to Q4 planning.

Ports including Long Beach, Savannah, and New York/New Jersey saw double-digit declines, while Tacoma was the only major gateway to record a small increase.

Despite the fall, total import volume for 2025 remains 1.9% higher year-to-date, a reminder that freight isn’t collapsing, just recalibrating.

Carriers Exiting Faster Than Entering

Owner-operators and small fleets are exiting at record pace, tightening real capacity beneath the surface. Image Source: Adam Wingfield/X

According to a recent TruckingDive analysis of FMCSA operating authority data, in Q3 2025, exits (revocations) outpaced new grants and reinstatements.

  • Payroll data for March 2025 pegged trucking employment at ~505,000, down ~3.1% vs. a year ago, a level comparable to early 2018.

  • One analyst noted that the small end of the market still carries ~39% more drivers than before the pandemic, and that the industry continues to have a capacity overhang.

What’s happening: small and marginal carriers are bleeding out. In a market where spot might be firming, fewer players mean less buffer.

The Setup for Q4

Combine the two trends and you get a freight market that looks deceptively quiet but is slowly constricting.

  • Fewer imports = fewer backhauls and intermodal loads.

  • Fewer carriers = less elasticity when volume bounces back.

  • Add tariffs, rerouted ocean freight, and high insurance costs, and it’s easy to see how small imbalances could flip quickly.

We’ve seen this movie before: soft rates for months, then sudden bursts of volatility that catch shippers off guard.

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 🌎 Around The Freight Web

🏁 C.H. Robinson NASCAR Debut. A C.H. Robinson–branded car hit the NASCAR track in Las Vegas, marking the brokerage’s latest brand partnership. The driver, Blane Perkins, placed 27 in the race on Saturday night.

😔 Uber Freight Cuts Jobs. Uber Freight announced job cuts as part of a broader commercial reorganization, streamlining its digital brokerage and enterprise sales teams amid continued margin pressure and shifting freight demand.

💊 Cocaine Seized. CBP officers at the World Trade Bridge in Laredo found $4.4 million in cocaine concealed in a tractor-trailer on October 1. The drugs were hidden within the trailer’s structural beams, and the driver was detained.

🚓 Commercial Dragnets Expand. State and federal agencies are ramping up commercial vehicle dragnets targeting unsafe carriers, fake CDLs, and ELD violations. Officials say the coordinated sweeps are designed to remove high-risk operators from U.S. highways.

🧾 Ontario Blitz Results. Ontario inspectors checked over 500 trucks, placing 31% out of service during the two-day blitz (Oct 7 and 8). Violations included faulty brakes, worn tires, and driver log falsifications.

🎣THE FREIGHT CAVIAR CORNER

This Friday (Oct. 17) at 8AM CST, we’re hosting the Ultimate Freight Meme Competition, powered by Epay Manager. Eight contestants, three judges, one winner — all bracket style. Each matchup gets a random meme template and just 60 seconds to create a freight meme before the judges decide who advances.

FREIGHT HUMOR

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